Road to Houston: Watch out for the Wild Cards

Who will be this year's Brian Sell?

As we are only a few days away now, you've probably heard plenty about Ryan Hall, Dathan Ritzenhein and Meb Keflezighi on the Men's side and Shalane Flanagan, Desi Davila and Kara Goucher on the Women's side. All this is for good reason. They are the favorites. They deserve your respect. They have nice contracts. They'll be ok, even if the trials don't go as planned. On paper, they should be the top three on each side. But as we all know, the marathon is a an animal. It's a wild animal at that. You can have the best training block of your life and then have a bad race day. You can also go through a rough block and find magic in a bottle. That's what this group of competitors will be trying to find on their "Road to Houston." Everyone likes the underdog, and here's a few to root for (in alphabetical order).

Wild Men
Ryan Bak

Nike

Did Bak just get a deal with Nike after his strong performance at CIM? Maybe so. His 2:14 this close to the trials certainly shows promise. Will it be enough of a launchpad to give him the confidence to challenge for a spot? From his recent interviews, it certainly looks as such. Will be interesting to see what he's got in the tank after racing a month ago.

Fernando Cabada
Unattached (Translation: If he can make the team, he'll get paid)
Cabada has been on it for years and seems to be rounding into top form at the right time. Judging by some of his recent workouts, he's primed to rip one. He's seasoned, has a 2:12 PR, an American Record (at 25k) and a National Championship in the Marathon ('08) to his name. Beware the "Cabadass."

Hartmann would love
a Chicago repeat

Jason Hartmann
Nike

Hartmann has proved that he can run well on flat courses and in the heat. His finish as the top American at Chicago in 2010 should give him confidence that he can run something similar (in similar weather) in Houston Saturday. Hartmann was 10th at the 2007 trials and will be looking to put everything on the line as he gets later into his career. Will the 2:11 kind of performance he ran at Chicago be enought to make the London team? It may be a stretch, but he's certainly got the credentials to give it a run (pun intended).

Jason Lehmkuhle
Saucony
Lehmkuhle has put together a group of nice runs over the past few years and will be primed for a spot this year. People may forget that Lehmkuhle was 5th at the 2007 Trials (for the 2008 Olympics). Don't expect him to go out and push the pace, but expect him to finish very strong. This tactic worked very well for Brian Sell in '07 and it wouldn't surprise me if Lehmkuhle developed a similar race plan. (And be sure to check out the very cool "Marathon Road" video about Lehmkuhle and Team USA Minnesota by clicking here)

Mike Morgan
Hanson-Brooks Distance Project
If you've seen any of Flotrack's "Made in Detroit" series, you can see this guy is fit. He's run on the international stage before and looks primed to make a run at it. The Hansons are always in the mix, and between Morgan and Luke Humphrey, one of these guys is going to be up there in the top seven making a run for the podium.

Cherobon-Bawcom would love to
 break the tape Saturday

Wild Women
Janet Cherobon-Bawcom
Atlanta Track Club (Translation: Like Cabada, a top three finish would likely gain a shoe deal)
Cherobon-Bawcom may be the biggest wild card in the field, as no one really knows what she is capable of. She came on strong late in the year to win the USA Running Circuit title and then started Marathon training with the one and only Jack Daniels. It wouldn't surprise me if she finished second, but it also wouldn't surprise me if she finished tenth. We'll see what she's got in the tank Saturday.

Amy Hastings

Brooks

Hastings had an incredible debut, running 2:27 in LA, in the rain (last year). Training in Mammoth certainly suits Marathon training, and 5k training, considering her excellent 2011 outdoor season. With the 5000 at the track trials being her backup plan, I'm sure she'd like to go ahead and punch her ticket to London on Saturday. 

Deena Kastor

Asics

It's hard to think that anyone would consider the American Record Holder at the Marathon a wild card, but that's exactly where she falls. She ran great at the NYC Half, but hasn't done much else in the past few years. That may be exactly how she wants it. She is a former Olympic Medalist, so she's got the mental capacity to will herself to something great. It will be exciting to see if that Deena shows up Saturday. Let's hope so!

Molly Pritz
Asics
It looks as though Ms. Pritz has gotten a new sponsor over the past few weeks, but don't expect her new contract to make her any less of a bulldog on the roads of Houston this weekend. Pritz's first 'thon was NYC and she ran well, but faded a bit, like many do, over the last 5 miles. Expect her confidence to carry her towards the top group Saturday. She's one of the younger competitors of the group, so we could be getting an early look at one of the favorites in 2016.

Rhines would be happy with this outcome

Jen Rhines

Adidas
Rhines is the ageless wonder and continues to perform, year in and year old. Only this June, at the USATF Track Championships, she beat Davila in the 5000 and 10,000, so she'll come in with confidence. The fact that she trains in Mammoth with Hastings and Kastor doesn't hurt at all either. Her experience will come in handy amongst an excellent field.

We're only a few days away! Bookmark the "Road to Houston" Recap page for continued coverage leading up to the 2012 Olympic Marathon Trials in Houston, TX on January 14, 2012.

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NYC 2011: Can Gebremariam hold off the Mutais?

Gebre Gebremariam, feeling the flow

Gebre Gebremariam put on a show last year in New York and made a mockery of the competition, and the Marathon in general, with a big win on "doubled 10k training." In his debut, on arguably the most challenging Marathon Major course, Gebremariam was flawless. The 2010 runner up was Kenya's Emmanuel Mutai, who is considered one of the favorites again this year. Mutai also will have the weight of making the Kenyan Olympic team on his shoulders, something that will be a very tight competition within the competition.

Since NYC 2010, Gebremariam has seen some challenges and the Marathon has seen some changes. Multiple 2:03's have been turned in, and Kenya has taken to the forefront, dominating the 2011 World Championship Marathon and leaving Gebremariam's Ethiopian countrymen in their wake.

The biggest question about the 2011 NYC Marathon has got to be, will the Kenyans go out at a breakneck pace on the challenging NYC course? If they do, will Gebremariam and his countryman, Tsegaye Kebede, go with them? Can someone run in the 2:05 range on the NYC course? And can Meb Keflezighi run under 2:10 in a pair of Skechers?

Geoffrey Mutai will likely lead the Kenyan charge with former Galen Rupp American 10k Record Attempt-pacer, Matthew Kisorio, making his Marathon debut after a strong 2011 track season in tow. Expect both Mutai's to set the pace with Kisorio right on their shoulder, with Kebede and Gebremariam right in the pack. It's going to be quite the show, and luckily, we can watch it on Universal Sports, UniversalSports.com (for free) and the Marathon Mobile App starting at 9am eastern.

Finally, on the American front, Meb Keflezighi is taking a big risk running NYC so close to the 2012 Marathon Trials, but as a return champion, who is likely getting a very nice appearance fee, can you blame him? This will be his first Marathon as a member of Team Skechers, and it will be interesting to see what he's got in the tank. He ran great at the San Jose Half and I don't think he'll fall out of the top seven. It's hard not to get excited about the debuts from Bobby Curtis and Ed Moran as well. Both have been great 10k runners and will look to make the Olympic Team in that event, but both should battle for top ten finishes tomorrow, as they likely will run more within themselves than some of the pack upfront, and will pick off stragglers as long as they respect the Marathon!

Keitany hopes to raise the roof in Manhattan

On the Women's side, last year's bronze medalist, Mary Keitany, looks to be the cream of the crop. Keitany finished behind Edna Kiplagat and a strong finishing Shalane Flanagan, in her debut, then went on to win the 2011 London Marathon in a very fast 2:19:19. 2011 Boston Marathon winner, Caroline Kilel, is a proven hill runner and could emerge if the late hills of Central Park slow Keitany. Also, Kim Smith could do something special as long as she doesn't try to run away from the field early, like she did in Boston. The three will likely run together and then make a go of it in the last 10k.

On the American front, the most exciting debut is certainly Lauren Fleshman. Fleshman is a runner's runner and is easy to pull for. She's been battling some injuries, but appears to be a perfect fit for the stage of New York. Let's hope she wakes up feeling good and can run the race competitively.

Also in the field is the ageless Jen Rhines. Rhines can do it all and I would expect nothing less than a top ten finish from her. She's strong, consistent and well trained for a course like New York. USATF 25k Champion Molly Pritz rounds out the showcased debutantes, and should be capable of something in the 2:30-2:32 range.

Official writing about running Predictions:

Men
1. G. Mutai
2. Kebede
3. Gebremariam

Top American: Keflezighi (6th)

Women
1. Kilel
2. Keitany
3. K. Smith

Top American: Jen Rhines (8th)

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Daily Daegu: Women's Marathon starts the party tonight

2 different Dreams in Daegu

We're finally here. After plenty of talk and speculation, the dance starts tonight (at 8pm for us east coasters) as the 2011 Women's World Championship Marathon kicks things off in Daegu. First things first, if you want to watch the Women's Marathon and the rest of the championships live, get access for $14.99 from Universal Sports. They have a deal now where if you enter the code "trackc2l" you get full Daegu access, plus the 2011 Diamond League package. That package includes on-demand replays of all the previous meets, plus live coverage of Zurich on September 8th (aka the Olympics in a day) and Brussels on September 16th. You can also get my coverage/opinions/predictions every day here on the Daily Daegu and via twitter.

2010 New York City Marathon winner, Kenya's Edna Kiplagat, leads the way in the Marathon this evening with many top names missing, as there isn't any appearance fee money at the World Championships. It is an excellent place to earn some for the future though! What will be exciting is the team title that will likely come down to Kenya vs. Ethiopia (shocking I know). The Kenyan stars are Kiplagat, Sharon Cheprop, Priscah Jeptoo and Caroline Rotich. The Ethiopian stars are Aselefech Mergia, Bezunesh Bekele, Atsede Baysa, Aberu Kebede and 2008 Boston Winner Dire Tune. My money's on Kenya, but I would be surprised if Ethiopia won in a landslide either. The American team is comprised of five women looking to cut their teeth a little more on the international level. Leading the team is the master, Colleen De Reuck. Tera Moody ('09) and Zoila Gomez ('07,'09) also bring experience, with Kathy Newberry and Zap Fitness' Alisa McKaig rounding out the team (I write this a few miles from Zap en route to the USATF 10k Trail Championships). A podium finish may be a stretch for my fellow Americans, but I'm pulling for you ladies!

Tomorrow morning at 8am eastern, Shalane Flanagan leads the charge for a medal in the Women's 10,000. Making the podium will be tough, but definitely not impossible. Kenyan Sally Kipyego, who trains with the Oregon Track Club, has the best time in the world this year at 30:38 and has gotten the better of Flanagan of late, but will likely be a must beat for Flanagan to get on the stand. Vivian Cheruiyot and Meseret Defar will be duking it out up front with defending champion, Kenya's Linet Masai, in the mix as well. Finally, Ethiopia's Meselech Melkamu will be pushing the pace in the Flanagan/Kipyego and possibly Masai. If Flanagan can run like she did at World Cross and bide her time until the last 2k, she should be in the position she needs to be to bring home some hardware. It will also be interesting to see how the recently injured Kara Goucher and 5-time World Championship team member, Jen Rhines, do. If either crack the top 7 or 8, it should be deemed a success.

Again, the festivities begin at 8pm eastern tonight on Universal Sports. IAAF World Championship central is here with startlists, etc. And finally, the Let's Run prediction contest is here.

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