Road to Houston: Watch out for the Wild Cards

Who will be this year's Brian Sell?

As we are only a few days away now, you've probably heard plenty about Ryan Hall, Dathan Ritzenhein and Meb Keflezighi on the Men's side and Shalane Flanagan, Desi Davila and Kara Goucher on the Women's side. All this is for good reason. They are the favorites. They deserve your respect. They have nice contracts. They'll be ok, even if the trials don't go as planned. On paper, they should be the top three on each side. But as we all know, the marathon is a an animal. It's a wild animal at that. You can have the best training block of your life and then have a bad race day. You can also go through a rough block and find magic in a bottle. That's what this group of competitors will be trying to find on their "Road to Houston." Everyone likes the underdog, and here's a few to root for (in alphabetical order).

Wild Men
Ryan Bak

Nike

Did Bak just get a deal with Nike after his strong performance at CIM? Maybe so. His 2:14 this close to the trials certainly shows promise. Will it be enough of a launchpad to give him the confidence to challenge for a spot? From his recent interviews, it certainly looks as such. Will be interesting to see what he's got in the tank after racing a month ago.

Fernando Cabada
Unattached (Translation: If he can make the team, he'll get paid)
Cabada has been on it for years and seems to be rounding into top form at the right time. Judging by some of his recent workouts, he's primed to rip one. He's seasoned, has a 2:12 PR, an American Record (at 25k) and a National Championship in the Marathon ('08) to his name. Beware the "Cabadass."

Hartmann would love
a Chicago repeat

Jason Hartmann
Nike

Hartmann has proved that he can run well on flat courses and in the heat. His finish as the top American at Chicago in 2010 should give him confidence that he can run something similar (in similar weather) in Houston Saturday. Hartmann was 10th at the 2007 trials and will be looking to put everything on the line as he gets later into his career. Will the 2:11 kind of performance he ran at Chicago be enought to make the London team? It may be a stretch, but he's certainly got the credentials to give it a run (pun intended).

Jason Lehmkuhle
Saucony
Lehmkuhle has put together a group of nice runs over the past few years and will be primed for a spot this year. People may forget that Lehmkuhle was 5th at the 2007 Trials (for the 2008 Olympics). Don't expect him to go out and push the pace, but expect him to finish very strong. This tactic worked very well for Brian Sell in '07 and it wouldn't surprise me if Lehmkuhle developed a similar race plan. (And be sure to check out the very cool "Marathon Road" video about Lehmkuhle and Team USA Minnesota by clicking here)

Mike Morgan
Hanson-Brooks Distance Project
If you've seen any of Flotrack's "Made in Detroit" series, you can see this guy is fit. He's run on the international stage before and looks primed to make a run at it. The Hansons are always in the mix, and between Morgan and Luke Humphrey, one of these guys is going to be up there in the top seven making a run for the podium.

Cherobon-Bawcom would love to
 break the tape Saturday

Wild Women
Janet Cherobon-Bawcom
Atlanta Track Club (Translation: Like Cabada, a top three finish would likely gain a shoe deal)
Cherobon-Bawcom may be the biggest wild card in the field, as no one really knows what she is capable of. She came on strong late in the year to win the USA Running Circuit title and then started Marathon training with the one and only Jack Daniels. It wouldn't surprise me if she finished second, but it also wouldn't surprise me if she finished tenth. We'll see what she's got in the tank Saturday.

Amy Hastings

Brooks

Hastings had an incredible debut, running 2:27 in LA, in the rain (last year). Training in Mammoth certainly suits Marathon training, and 5k training, considering her excellent 2011 outdoor season. With the 5000 at the track trials being her backup plan, I'm sure she'd like to go ahead and punch her ticket to London on Saturday. 

Deena Kastor

Asics

It's hard to think that anyone would consider the American Record Holder at the Marathon a wild card, but that's exactly where she falls. She ran great at the NYC Half, but hasn't done much else in the past few years. That may be exactly how she wants it. She is a former Olympic Medalist, so she's got the mental capacity to will herself to something great. It will be exciting to see if that Deena shows up Saturday. Let's hope so!

Molly Pritz
Asics
It looks as though Ms. Pritz has gotten a new sponsor over the past few weeks, but don't expect her new contract to make her any less of a bulldog on the roads of Houston this weekend. Pritz's first 'thon was NYC and she ran well, but faded a bit, like many do, over the last 5 miles. Expect her confidence to carry her towards the top group Saturday. She's one of the younger competitors of the group, so we could be getting an early look at one of the favorites in 2016.

Rhines would be happy with this outcome

Jen Rhines

Adidas
Rhines is the ageless wonder and continues to perform, year in and year old. Only this June, at the USATF Track Championships, she beat Davila in the 5000 and 10,000, so she'll come in with confidence. The fact that she trains in Mammoth with Hastings and Kastor doesn't hurt at all either. Her experience will come in handy amongst an excellent field.

We're only a few days away! Bookmark the "Road to Houston" Recap page for continued coverage leading up to the 2012 Olympic Marathon Trials in Houston, TX on January 14, 2012.

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Road to Houston: An early look at the Men's Olympic Marathon Trials contenders

On Saturday, January 14th, less than four weeks away, the best American marathoners will take to the roads of Houston in hopes of a podium finish, and more importantly, a trip to London. Over the next few weeks, I'll be posting a series of articles entitled, "Road to Houston," to preview the big day. First up, the early Men's Contenders.

Hall's 2007 Houston magic

1. Ryan Hall
Resume: Defending Olympic Trials champion (10th in Beijing). Owns the top three qualifying marks with his 2:04:58 at Boston (2011), 2:08:04 at Chicago (2011) and 2:08:44 at Boston (2010). American Record Holder in Half Marathon (59:43 from Houston 2007).
Why he'll make the team: Has been the most consistent American Marathoner over the past 5 years. Has run very fast in Houston (2007 Half AR). Will have to have a very bad day to finish outside of the top three.
Why he may not: Hall raced Chicago in October, so it will be a fairly quick turnaround. Three months should be ample time, but recover is tricky when it comes to the marathon.

2. Meb Keflezighi
Resume: 2004 Olympic Marathon Silver Medalist (Athens). 2009 New York City Marathon Champion. Owns marks 4-7 going into trials (best 2:09:13 at NYC 2011).
Why he'll make the team: Is coming off a PR at NYC and seems to be in the best marathon shape of his career, despite being 36 years old. Has the most experience and has proven to be a champion.
Why he may not: Meb will be only two months removed from NYC and he's not getting any younger. Will he be fully recovered and race-ready when he toes the line?

Ritz will want another day like this

3. Dathan Ritzenhein
Resume: Former American Record Holder at 5000 (12:56.27 from 2009). World Half Marathon Championship Bronze Medalist (2009). 2008 Olympian in the Marathon (9th in Beijing). Owns 9th best mark (2:10:00 at London 2009).
Why he'll make the team: Ritz is a fierce competitor and nothing would announce his comeback more than making the London team.
Why he may not: Has been injured a ton over the past two years, so his race fitness and durability is a big question mark.

4. Galen Rupp
Resume: American Record Holder at 10,000 (26:48 in 2011). 60:30 in debut Half Marathon (NYC 2011).
Why he'll make the team: Rupp's half time converts to about 2:07 or 2:08, depending on what you use to calculate and there aren't many guys running in that range. If he can hang through 20 miles, he's got a shot.
Why he may not: Has to be on the starting line to make the time. He is entered, but it's all speculation until declarations are made. Has never run the marathon. Breaking up Hall, Meb and Ritz will be tough.

5. Jason Hartmann
Resume: 1st American at Chicago 2010 (2:11:06). Won Twin Cities in 2009 (2:12:06).
Why he'll make the team: Has run excellent marathons in back to back years and can run with the best when healthy. Has proven to do well on flat courses and warm conditions.
Why he may not: Has to break up the big three (and possibly Rupp), which will be no easy task.

Saucony's big gun, Jason Lehmkuhle

6. Jason Lehmkuhle
Resume: 5th at 2008 Olympic Trials. Ran 1:02:49 at Houston Half in 2011. Ran 2:12:34 at Boston (2010).
Why he'll make the team: Lehmkuhle is incredibly consistent and will be in the hunt. He came close in '08 and will run his race. Whether or not that will be fast enough will be the question.
Why he may not: His PR is 2:12 and it will take every bit of that to make the team. Lehmkuhle will have to have an A+ day to have a shot.

7. Brett Gotcher
Resume: 2:10:36 for 2nd at Houston (2010). 46:51 for 10 miles in October (Twin Cities).
Why he'll make the team: Gotcher's excellent debut came on the Houston course (although it's a little different) and he boasts the best qualifying time outside of Hall, Meb and Ritz.
Why he may not: His second trip to Houston wasn't as successful. This will only be his third marathon.

The McMillan men look at the field with deep focus

8. Nick Arciniaga
Resume: 2nd at Houston in 2011 (2:11:36) while pacing Gotcher and then choosing to continue. 3rd at San Diego in 2010 (2:11:48).
Why he'll make the team: Arciniaga's success at Houston last year will certainly give him confidence. Trains with Gotcher (for McMillan Elite), so the two of them will be able to help each other.
Why he may not: Has been injured of late and it's hard to say what kind of marathon shape he'll be in. Making the team will demand an A effort, but certainly something he's capable of.

Trafeh will take aim at Hall over 26.2

9. Mo Trafeh
Resume: 2011 USATF Half Marathon Champion (in Houston with a time of 1:02:17). 2011 USATF 10 Mile Champion (Twin Cities, 46:46). 60:39 at NYC Half (2011).
Why he'll make the team: Trafeh's very good over the half marathon and below distances. He out kicked Hall in the USATF Half Championship in Houston last year and has dominated the Gate River Run 15k two years in a row. Like Rupp, if he can get to 20 miles with the leaders, he's a threat.
Why he may not: Has never raced a full marathon. The trials will be a pressure packed place to debut!

10. Tim Nelson
Resume: 27:28 PR in the 10,000. 1:02:11 Half at Houston 2010
Why he'll make the team: Nelson has an excellent training group with Team Schumacher in Portland (Solinsky, Tegenkamp, Bairu, Jager, Vaughn) and has a great kick. If he can hang on, he'll be tough over the last few miles.
Why he may not: His first go at the marathon wasn't the best (2:15:06 at NYC 2010). He'll need to have a much better day to be considered a threat.

Stay tuned for the Women's Contenders article this week and continued coverage leading up to the 2012 Olympic Marathon Trials in Houston, TX on January 14, 2012.

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Road Rage: The Black Cactus is back! Abdi Abdirahman wins USATF 20k Championship

Abdi after winning 2008 Olympic Trials 10,000
(TrackAndFieldPhoto)

Abdi Abdirahman aka "The Black Cactus" won his first National Championship in over two years today (last was 2009 10k at Peachtree) in breaking away from a strong field, with a 4:36 fifth mile at the Stratton Faxon New Haven Road Race in New Haven, CT. For his USATF 20k National Championship, Abdirahman will take home the $8000 first place prize. His winning time was 1:00:13.

Finishing second, in 1:00:34 was Team USA Minnesota's Jason Lehmkuhle. Finalizing the podium was Boulder, CO's Fernando Cabada in 1:00:58.

On the Women's side, new American citizen (via Kenya), Janet Cherobon-Bawcom, took the title in 1:08:30 over Clara Grandt, who finished in a near personal best of 1:09:06. USA Running Circuit veteran, Katie McGregor, was third in 1:09:56.

Here are the results, courtesy of Runnerspace. Kevin Ullman and Chris Nickinson did an excellent job covering the race this morning with no finish line mishaps!

Next up will be the 5k National Championships in Providence, RI on September 18th.

For more on the USA Running Circuit, check out: http://USARunningCircuit.com

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