The show will go on in NYC.

The show will go on this Sunday in New York City. Some hate it, some love it. I fall somewhere closer to the latter. Many are disappointed that their travel has been disrupted. That's tough. I've been flying in and out of LaGuardia every Monday and Thursday for the past seven months and know first hand how best laid plans can go awry. My 3:30-turned-11:30 departure last Thursday seems pretty small in comparison to the desolation that Sandy has inflicted on the biggest and best city in America. I also know how good it felt to run this great race in 2009.

While being the financial capital of the world, New York is also the most resilient city in the world. Many have been displaced, but the city will come together and recover. As much as I feel for those that are in dire straits right now, I'm happy that the race will be run. The New York City Marathon is as good as it gets. Mary Wittenberg and the New York Road Runners will do everything in their power to put on the best race they possibly can for those all over the world on this first Sunday in November.

Whatever your opinion, set your DVR and/or watch the marathon this Sunday at 9am eastern on ESPN. (A program called "Marathon Morning Across America: 2012 ING New York City Marathon" will air at 7am on ESPN 3). The better the ratings, the more likely it will be that more major running events are carried by ESPN. And I think we can all agree that this would be a good thing!

writing about running predictions:

Men
1. Moses Mosop
2. Martin Lel
3. Wilson Kipsang
Darkhorse: Meb Keflezighi
Next American: Jason Hartmann

Women
1. Bizunesh Deba
2. Kim Smith
3. Tatyana Arkhipova
Darkhorse: Edna Kiplagat
Top Americans: Amy Hastings & Molly Pritz

Prep for Sunday with two great podcasts:

House of Run - Jason and Kevin are joined by Jesse Squire and Dan Rubenstein

The Trailer - The guys are joined by Lauren Fleshman

...and the always excellent LetsRun.com Men's and Women's preview


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Road to Houston: First impressions of Houston and Predictions

The Trials Start and Finish

We're finally here. It's the night before the 2012 Olympic Trials Marathon in Houston and most of the elites are starting to tuck in; probably watching some terrible television or anything that will help them relax before what will be, for many, a make or break day in their running careers. Few will prosper, but all will move on in and recall this day for the rest of their lives. And after all the 100+ mile weeks, what a ride it has been. I was lucky enough to interview many of them for the  "Road to Houston" series, and enjoyed meeting Drew Polley, Molly Pritz, and Meagan Nedlo in person today at race headquarters. I look forward to meeting the rest tomorrow after the race.

Spirits were high today for everyone, as the weather was near perfect. A little wind, but nothing crazy. I was lucky enough to catch up and hang out with Jordan Kinley from Karhu and Jeff Caron from Saucony, who were nice enough to show me around and introduce me to a few more folks in the running world. I saw Will Leer going for a jog on the course, Sara Hall asking the help desk for information and met recent Club Cross Champ, Jon Grey, and then proceeded to see him all over the place (he's running the half on Sunday).

Kind of harsh?

The setup in Discovery Green Park is awesome and will cater to everyone. The course is very fan-friendly, with the runners taking off on a 2.2 mile inner loop, before circuiting an 8 mile outer loop 3 times. The Men go off at 8am Central and the Women take off shortly thereafter at 8:14 to 8:17 (likely 8:15).

Without further adieu, here are my picks, without comment. If you want more info, look back at the "Road to Houston" series! And if you disagree, feel free to comment or send me an email. I'm all ears and love to be proven wrong!

Men's Picks
1. Meb Keflezighi
2. Ryan Hall
3. Dathan Ritzenhein
Darkhorse: Fernando Cabada
Hail Mary: Brett Gotcher

The Nike machine is in full force!

Women's Picks

1. Shalane Flanagan
2. Desi Davila
3. Deena Kastor
Darkhorse: Kara Goucher
Hail Mary: Amy Hastings

Enjoy the broadcast tomorrow folks! I'll be live tweeting short videos and updates (until my iPhone battery dies) and watch the recap on NBC from 3-5pm Eastern. I'll be wearing a Kelly Green pullover and Carolina Blue Hat, with black compression pants on the course. Hope to see you all out there.

Finally, good looking out to Kevin Liao at Spiked Up, Psyched Up. The community of running bloggers/unofficial press is quite the collection of people that I'm happy to be a part of (and good luck to all of your fantasy teams. I'll have scores posted after lunch).

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Road to Houston Recap

We are now in the week of the race and this page will serve as a quick recap of the previews and interviews. I'll add everything to this page as we go along as well. Good news on my end as well, as I just booked my flight, hotel and rental car for the weekend. I will be in Houston! I look forward to meeting everyone. If you'll be in attendance, send me an email.

Early Predictions
Published on December 18, 2011

Check out early race previews before declarations:

Click here for Men's Race early preview

Click here for the Women's Race early preview

5 Questions with Joe Moore
Published on December 20, 2011

"There was a tight turn at the finish, and I saw the clock tick over 1:04:50, and I knew I had it. It was more just a huge relief that I had finally gotten it."

Click here to read the Joe Moore interview

5 Questions with Molly Pritz
Published on December 23, 2011

"Both in training and the race I found an inner strength I never knew I had and I'd like to think that my NYC experience has not only made me a stronger runner, but a stronger person in every aspect of life."

Click here to read the Molly Pritz interview

5 Questions with Addie Bracy
Published on  December 27, 2011

"It took me a year or two to adjust to the difference in training, as well as my training environment. It wasn't until the last 8 months that I really felt that I had a breakthrough."

Click here to read the Addie Bracy interview

5 Questions with Danny Mercado
Published on December 28, 2011

"But after tireless nagging from the guys, Greg decided to give me a shot. From there, everything just clicked."

Click here to read the Danny Mercado interview

5 Questions with Tyler McCandless
Published on December 30, 2011

"How big was Kauai for me? It was really a game-changer. Financially, it was important because I was able to use that money for a down-payment on a house."

Click here to read the Tyler McCandless interview

5 Questions with Meagan Nedlo
Published on December 31, 2011

"It was such an incredible, incredulous offer that I had no choice but to say yes! And so that's how I began my first collegiate track season at the ripe old age of 26."

Click here to read the Meagan Nedlo interview

5 Questions with Brent Vaughn
Published on January 1, 2012

"My goal at the trials is to make the team. I think thats the reason I'm running. Training has gone very well and I think strange things sometimes happen over the marathon distance "

Click here to read the Brent Vaughn interview

5 Questions with Drew Polley
Published on January 2, 2012

"The fact that my training partners and I have handled most of the workouts pretty well doesn’t change the goals we set at the beginning of the segment though. The Hanson bosses will tell you that it is important to stick to your plan and run your own race!"

Click here to read the Drew Polley interview

5 Questions with Fernando Cabada
Published on January 3, 2012

"I have what it takes. I've won 3 USA Championships... and am in better shape now. If I was to run a 2:08 on January 14th, that wouldn't surprise me. I've been due for a performance like that. It's on and I'm ready for any kind of race."

Click here to read the Fernando Cabada interview

5 Questions with Jesse Armijo
Published on January 5, 2012

"I'm more of a racer, but in the marathon, all my pervious performances were calculated failures by going out with a watch and clicking off even splits, until I inevitability faded. At CIM, I decided to just race."

Click here to read the Jesse Armijo interview

5 Questions with Ricky Flynn
Published on January 7, 2012

"I ended up going to the Woodrow Wilson Bridge Half and had a really good race with some good guys to run with and it worked out really well. It was a huge weight off my chest when I hit the time and I surprised myself a little bit by being that far under 65:00. It was a great feeling."

Click here to read the Ricky Flynn interview

Watch out for the Wild Cards
Published on January 11, 2012

Here we take a look at some of the overlooked competitors and wonder who will be this year's Brian Sell. We feature Bak, Cabada, Hartmann, Lehmkuhle and Morgan, Cherobon-Bawcom, Hastings, Kastor, Rhines and the newly-signed (to Asics) Molly Pritz.

Click here to read the full article

5 Questions with Luke Puskedra
Published on January 13, 2012

"I feel that I have underachieved on the track compared to results in Cross Country and the workouts I’ve done. I’d like to run fast in the 5000 and 10,000 and win some team titles... to finish off my college career."

Click here to read the Luke Puskedra interview

First impressions of Houston and Predictions
Published on January 13, 2012

I give my predictions for who I think is going to make the team for the 2012 London Olympic Games and give thanks for the people that showed me around today and recognize my fellow "unofficial track press."

Read the full article with predictions here

Meb and Shalane triumph, while Abdi surprises in Olympic Trials Marathon
Published on January 14, 2012

The results went pretty much to prediction, with the exception of Abdi Abdirahman beating out Ritz for the third and final Olympic spot. Meb and Hall qualified as well, with Shalane, Desi and Kara on the Women's side.

Read the full article on the race here

Final Trials Thoughts and Fantasy Recap
Published January 16, 2012

Houston put on an excellent show this weekend. The trials lived up to the hype and I also made the podium in the highly competitive fantasy draft.

Read my thoughts and get the fantasy scoop here

Bookmark this page for continued coverage of the 2012 Olympic Marathon Trials in Houston, TX on January 14, 2012.

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Road to Houston: 5 Questions with Olympic Trials competitor, Molly Pritz

Today, we were lucky enough to have 5 Questions with one of the Women's Contenders on her "Road to Houston." We'll have a few more of these features over the holidays as we lead up to the big day on January 14, 2012.

Molly Pritz is coming off a strong debut Marathon, finishing as the top American this November at New York City, and has had an excellent 2011. Strong Half Marathons in New Orleans and San Antonio, as well as a USATF Road Championship at 25k have vaulted her to the top tier of American road runners. She will have a quick turnaround for the Trials, but looks to be up for the challenge! Follow her on Twitter here and check out her blog here.

5 Questions with Molly Pritz

1. Writing About Running: You recently ran your debut at NYC, how's the recovery and training for the Trials going?

Molly Pritz: My recovery from NYC went really well. My quads were certainly beat up from the hills and bridges for about three days afterwards, but I spent a week in Hawaii with my mom and took full advantage of swimming in the ocean to help loosen everything up.

I took about 10 days off after NYC and felt ready to dive into training again after a few visits to the chiropractor. Unfortunately, I suffered a nasty fall while out on an easy run about 3 days after I started training again. Needless to say my knee did not like smacking against concrete. Luckily no serious damage was done, but unfortunately I had to miss even more training to allow the soft tissue to recover. I guess I need to work on my ability to not fall flat on my face!

2. Writing About Running: What were your biggest takeaways from racing that distance?
 
Molly Pritz: I would have to say I learned a lot about myself, not only from the race, but from training for it too. My build up was certainly less than ideal, but I was just so thankful to have the opportunity to be on the starting line of the best marathon in the world and wanted to do my best because so many people had helped make it possible for me to toe that line. In a way, I wanted to perform well as a thank you to them, in addition to the satisfaction of running my heart out.

Pritz and Lauren Fleshman going
stride for stride early in NYC

The biggest takeaway I had from the race experience itself is how important it is to truly enjoy what you are doing. I can honestly say I loved every mile of the marathon, including the miles I felt invincible and the final few miles where the wheels were falling off at an exponential rate. Both in training and the race I found an inner strength I never knew I had and I'd like to think that my NYC experience has not only made me a stronger runner, but a stronger person in every aspect of life. I don't think I could ask for a better takeaway from a race.

3. Writing About Running: You're now being coached by Mark Hadley, who many of us in NC know, but the rest of the country may not. What led you to him?

Molly Pritz: There are so many coaches in our sport that I found it rather difficult to figure out who would coach me post-Hansons. I never really thought I would have to think about it either, so I certainly wasn't prepared for the decision. I didn't know much about Mark's training philosophies, but David Monti, from the NYRR, recommended Mark based on my running strengths and my personality. I completely trust David, so after a few conversations with Mark about his training philosophy and my long term goals in the sport, I knew David's recommendation was a perfect match.

Fighting for it in NOLA

4. Writing About Running: Aside from NYC, you've had some excellent performances in 2011, from the 1:11 Half at New Orleans to the 1:12 Half win at San Antonio, to the 25k National Championship, that you won by a convincing 3 minutes. Which performance have you been most proud of thus far?

Molly Pritz: I would definitely say that my performance last year I was most proud of would be my 1:11 half in New Orleans. I had a very short build up leading up to Mardi Gras and was really  suffering in a lot of workouts. Even on the day of the race I was feeling horrible, but every time I felt like I was faltering I would surge and push harder. Some of my friends asked me afterwards if I was disappointed about being only seconds away from breaking 1:11, and I could honestly say I wasn't, because I can't think of a single moment in that race where I could have made up those 6 seconds. That's the most I can ask for out of any race performance.

5. Writing About Running: What is your goal for the Trials?

Molly Pritz: Since my short build up to the Trials was made even shorter by my fall, my main goal for the Trials is to gain experience by running with the best women in the nation. I have less racing experience than most people my age, so I can only hope that I can learn something by the whole Trials experience that will not only help me with my spring racing plans, but for the rest of my running career.

Stay tuned for more articles this week and continued coverage leading up to the 2012 Olympic Marathon Trials in Houston, TX on January 14, 2012.

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Road to Houston: An early look at the Women's Olympic Marathon Trials contenders

On Sunday, I covered the early contenders for the Men's race. Today, we'll look to the Women's Contenders for the "Road to Houston." These are what I think are the top ten contenders, but it wouldn't surprise me if someone like Jen Rhines showed up big on race day and made the squad. Another darkhorse is the always tough, Tera Moody, who came out of nowhere to finish fifth at the 2008 trials. But that's the beauty of it, someone will show up race day and make a run at it that we didn't expect!

Shalane Flanagan. So hot right now.

1. Shalane Flanagan
Resume: 2nd at NYC Marathon (2:28:40 in 2010). Bronze at 2011 World Cross. Top Half mark (68:36 at Philly 2010). American Record Holder at 10,000 (30:34.39 in 2009). Bronze Medalist at Olympic 10,000 (2008 in Beijing).
Why she'll make the team: Flanagan appears to be in peak shape and has made a strong commitment to the marathon with her coach, Jerry Schumacher. Davila will be the only one that could take the US title from her at Houston.
Why she may not: The only way Flanagan doesn't make this team is if she goes out very hard and bonks. This won't be likely as she'll likely have a race plan that involves negative splitting.

2. Desi Davila
Resume: 2nd at Boston in 2011 with top mark in the marathon (2:22:38). PR'd over 5,000 (15:08) and 10,000 (31:37) on the track in the 2011 season.
Why she'll make the team: Her gutsy performance at Boston, followed by huge PR's during the track season show Desi is ready to roll. Expect her to challenge for the win, with little chance she'll fall out of the top three.
Why she may not: Davila's fitness appears to be at a higher level than ever and it would take an injury or a mistimed move to keep her off the London squad.

Davila waited patiently in Boston

3. Kara Goucher
Resume: 2nd best mark in the half (1:09:11 at NYC in 2011). 2nd at 2011 US Championships at 10,000 (31:16). 3rd at Boston Marathon (2009). Bronze Medalist at 2007 World Championships at 10,000.
Why she'll make the team: A seasoned veteran and a bulldog of a racer, Goucher will throw every effort at qualifying for this team and has proven, when needed, to rise to the occasion.
Why she may not: Since giving birth to her son, Colt, Goucher has faced the injury bug. While she appears to be rounding into fitness, her 1:12:59 at Miami Beach shows she's no shoe in.

4. Janet Cherobon-Bawcom
Resume: 2011 USA Running Circuit Champion. Has run 1:11 in the half four times.
Why she'll make the team: Cherobon-Bawcom has been excellent as of late, winning the USA Running Circuit in impressive fashion and winning the 2011 BAA Half Marathon.
Why she may not: She's yet to run a great marathon. Can she keep up with the big three? It will take a big effort to make the team, but something that she's capable of.

5. Amy Hastings
Resume: 2nd at 2011 LA Marathon in her debut (2:27:03). Ran a PR of 15:14 at 5000 this summer.
Why she'll make the team: Hastings 2:27 was run in her debut. After that, she improved her track times. She has the speed to hang with the best. Also, trains with Deena and Angela Bizzarri in Mammoth.
Why she may not: She only has one marathon under her belt and is more of a track specialist. She'll have to have another great race, with some luck, to make the team.

The 2008 team of Magda, Deena and Blake will contend

6. Magdalena Lewy Boulet
Resume: 2008 Olympian, 2:26:22 at Rotterdam (2010) and 2:28:44 at Chicago (2010). PR'd at 10,000 at 2011 USA Championships (31:48.6).
Why she'll make the team: Magda's two marathons at 2:28 and under (during the qualifying period) show great consistency. If she can run in that range, she'll have a shot. Also, being a former Olympian, she knows how to get on the podium.
Why she may not: The field is deep, and Magda will have to beat Flanagan, Davila or Goucher, which will require a strong effort.

7. Deena Kastor
Resume: American Record Holder for the marathon (2:19:36 at London, 2006). Bronze Medalist at 2004 Olympics (Athens). American Record Holder in the Half Marathon (67:34 at Berlin, 2006). 2008 Olympian.
Why she'll make the team: Deena is the veteran of the bunch and has been here before. If she's fit, she's a threat.
Why she may may not: Deena ran 69:43 for the half twice in 2010, but hasn't run a decent marathon in a few years, so she'll be a big wild card on 1/14/12.

8. Stephanie Rothstein
Resume: 3rd at Houston 2010 in 2:29:35.
Why she'll make the team: Has run well on the Houston course and is capable of the time needed to make the team.
Why she may not: Rothstein doesn't have the resume that the others here do, so will have to run strong and unintimidated for a shot at the podium.

9. Blake Russell
Resume: 2008 Olympian. 3rd at 2011 USATF 10k Road Championships (54:44).
Why she'll make the team: Russell's been there before and is a strong cross country runner as well, showing the strength she'll need to fight for a spot.
Why she may not: Has run 1:11 in the half during the qualifying period, but hasn't run a qualifying marathon. Will take an A+ effort against this tough field.

Pritz will look to build on NYC success

10. Molly Pritz
Resume: 2:31:52 at NYC (2011). 1st at 2011 USATF 25k Road Championship (1:25:38). 1:11:05 half at New Orleans (2011).
Why she'll make the team: Pritz is coming off a strong debut on the tough NYC course. Has run some races that show she has the talent to compete for a podium spot.
Why she may not: Like Meb, Pritz only has two months to recover, and being that she's recovering from her first marathon, it will take a strong effort, and a quick turnaround, to make the top three.

Stay tuned for continued coverage leading up to the 2012 Olympic Marathon Trials in Houston, TX on January 14, 2012.

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NYC 2011: Can Gebremariam hold off the Mutais?

Gebre Gebremariam, feeling the flow

Gebre Gebremariam put on a show last year in New York and made a mockery of the competition, and the Marathon in general, with a big win on "doubled 10k training." In his debut, on arguably the most challenging Marathon Major course, Gebremariam was flawless. The 2010 runner up was Kenya's Emmanuel Mutai, who is considered one of the favorites again this year. Mutai also will have the weight of making the Kenyan Olympic team on his shoulders, something that will be a very tight competition within the competition.

Since NYC 2010, Gebremariam has seen some challenges and the Marathon has seen some changes. Multiple 2:03's have been turned in, and Kenya has taken to the forefront, dominating the 2011 World Championship Marathon and leaving Gebremariam's Ethiopian countrymen in their wake.

The biggest question about the 2011 NYC Marathon has got to be, will the Kenyans go out at a breakneck pace on the challenging NYC course? If they do, will Gebremariam and his countryman, Tsegaye Kebede, go with them? Can someone run in the 2:05 range on the NYC course? And can Meb Keflezighi run under 2:10 in a pair of Skechers?

Geoffrey Mutai will likely lead the Kenyan charge with former Galen Rupp American 10k Record Attempt-pacer, Matthew Kisorio, making his Marathon debut after a strong 2011 track season in tow. Expect both Mutai's to set the pace with Kisorio right on their shoulder, with Kebede and Gebremariam right in the pack. It's going to be quite the show, and luckily, we can watch it on Universal Sports, UniversalSports.com (for free) and the Marathon Mobile App starting at 9am eastern.

Finally, on the American front, Meb Keflezighi is taking a big risk running NYC so close to the 2012 Marathon Trials, but as a return champion, who is likely getting a very nice appearance fee, can you blame him? This will be his first Marathon as a member of Team Skechers, and it will be interesting to see what he's got in the tank. He ran great at the San Jose Half and I don't think he'll fall out of the top seven. It's hard not to get excited about the debuts from Bobby Curtis and Ed Moran as well. Both have been great 10k runners and will look to make the Olympic Team in that event, but both should battle for top ten finishes tomorrow, as they likely will run more within themselves than some of the pack upfront, and will pick off stragglers as long as they respect the Marathon!

Keitany hopes to raise the roof in Manhattan

On the Women's side, last year's bronze medalist, Mary Keitany, looks to be the cream of the crop. Keitany finished behind Edna Kiplagat and a strong finishing Shalane Flanagan, in her debut, then went on to win the 2011 London Marathon in a very fast 2:19:19. 2011 Boston Marathon winner, Caroline Kilel, is a proven hill runner and could emerge if the late hills of Central Park slow Keitany. Also, Kim Smith could do something special as long as she doesn't try to run away from the field early, like she did in Boston. The three will likely run together and then make a go of it in the last 10k.

On the American front, the most exciting debut is certainly Lauren Fleshman. Fleshman is a runner's runner and is easy to pull for. She's been battling some injuries, but appears to be a perfect fit for the stage of New York. Let's hope she wakes up feeling good and can run the race competitively.

Also in the field is the ageless Jen Rhines. Rhines can do it all and I would expect nothing less than a top ten finish from her. She's strong, consistent and well trained for a course like New York. USATF 25k Champion Molly Pritz rounds out the showcased debutantes, and should be capable of something in the 2:30-2:32 range.

Official writing about running Predictions:

Men
1. G. Mutai
2. Kebede
3. Gebremariam

Top American: Keflezighi (6th)

Women
1. Kilel
2. Keitany
3. K. Smith

Top American: Jen Rhines (8th)

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