Prediction Time: 2011 USATF Men's and Women's 800 picks

Schmidt & Vessey (Courtesy TrackAndFieldPhoto)

With all the madness at the finish of both the men's and women's 1500's yesterday, you have to think there will be more of the same today in the 8's. With at least five guys on the men's side with a legitimate chance of making the team and five sub 2:00 women's competitors, expect elbows, pushing and shoving and possibly some terse words post-finish.

Men's 800

1. Robby Andrews

Is Robby Andrews the new Nick Symmonds? It sure seems so as his lay back early and kick hard late style has won him multiple championships, including the 2011 NCAA title in a PR of 1:44.71. He has proved he can kick off a hard open (Charles Jock went out in 49.8 at NCAA's), and should be able to power past the nation's finest this afternoon.

2. Khadevis Robinson

KD is back! After a win in Rome and a great showing at the Prefontaine Classic, KD looks primed and ready for a podium finish. He had been employing the new sit and kick from 300 out tactic of late, and it's been working. Hopefully he'll stick with this and earn another Team USA singlet.

3. Nick Symmonds

Picking Symmonds third on what is essentially his home track seems a little treasonous, but Symmonds hasn't looked quite the same lately. Would it surprise me if he won? Absolutely not. But would it surprise me if he finished sixth? Not really. We'll see which Symmonds shows up at 2:27 pacific!

Darkhorse: Charles Jock

The newest American 800 star is Charles Jock. After nearly winning the NCAA title after going out in 49.8 and PR-ing in 1:44.75, Jock will be ready for the pros today. Expect him to take it out hard and force the kickers to come and get him.

Women's 800

1. Alysia Montano (nee Johnson)

Montano is the class of the American 800 women's field. She should take it out hard and then kick when necessary to secure another national championship.

2. Phoebe Wright

Wright hasn't kicked into full gear yet this year, but she'll be ready today. She's always on her game in championship finals and should finish on the podium with a standard effort.

3. Maggie Vessey

Vessey is unpredictable, but usually performs well in Eugene and will likely want to join her boyfriend in Daegu (if all goes to plan on that end). Her kick is top notch and she has shown of late that she doesn't have to hang way back like she used to. 

Darkhorse: Alice Schmidt

Here we go again, another Tar Heel! Schmidt has had quite the resurgence this year and has looked effortless in her return to the top. Running unattached, but still in Nike gear, hopefully a strong finish will get Schmidt full sponsorship through the London Olympics.

Watch the action unfold from 5-6pm eastern on NBC. Live results are here.

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Prediction Time: 2011 USATF Men's and Women's 1500 picks

Christin Wurth-Thomas, always sticking her nose in it

If you follow me on Twitter, you'll see I noticed two things this morning. The first thing was that every athlete in the Men's 1500 is sponsored by Nike. Whether it be through their club (Oregon Track Club), their school (Oregon, Arkansas, Virginia Tech) or just through a standard Nike sponsorship, there will be a lot of Zoom Victories on the track at 2:51 pacific today. The second thing was that Arkansas' Dorian Ulrey was advanced to the final after someone "impeded his progress" in the semi's with about 200 to go. Take a look a the "game tape" and see what you think. It looked to me that he just didn't shift gears when everyone else did and got tripped up. Either way, he'll be trying to make his second consecutive world team.

All footnotes aside, this final is going to be a scorcher. Whether someone takes it from the gun or they run sub 1:50 for the second 800 off a slow pace, it's going to be a grinder with as many as seven competitors vying for a podium spot (and a ticket to Daegu). The women's race will be just as tough as there are at least six capable women of stepping up and placing top three. So without further adieu, here are the official writing about running 1500 picks:

Men's 1500
1. Andrew Wheating
This is a toss up between Wheating and Lagat, but I think Wheating is pumped up and will take it. He has raced less and will be kicking home in front of the Hayward faithful. Then again, I picked Solinsky to win the 5000, so choose with caution.

2. Bernard Lagat
The ageless wonder will work only as hard as he has to, then will turn on the jets somewhere between 200 and 100 to go. Someone will have to push him down for Kip not to make the team.

Who wants it more?

3. Leo Manzano
I know Leo's had an off year so far, but he's done too many things in the past and looked great in the semi's. I think he'll pull through. I also wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't feeling it early and went DFL!

Darkhorse: Will Leer
Leer has been waiting his turn since he surprised in the trials in 2008 with a fourth place finish, passing Alan Webb at the line. He's been training in Ann Arbor with Olympic Silver Medalist Nick Willis and looked great in the semis. He's going to have his hands full with David Torrence, Lopez Lomong and Matt Centrowitz all performing at a high level as well, but it seems like this is a great chance for Leer to get on a World team, as he looks to be in peak shape.

Women's 1500
1. Jenny Simpson
After taking the indoor titles in the mile and the 2-mile, Jenny "B" Simpson looks to add an outdoor title to her 2011 mantle. She'll have some strong competition up front, but I believe will prevail with her strength and kick.

2. Morgan Uceny
Uceny has gotten better and better every year and I believe now is her time. She could contend for the win or she could contend for third, but she'll be up there mixing it up no matter what.

3. Christin Wurth-Thomas
As I mentioned the other day on Twitter, "the American runner most resembling Steve Prefontaine over the past 5 years is without a doubt, Christin Wurth-Thomas." There is no question about this. While she not be head and shoulders better than her American counterparts, she will make it an honest race. It's an absolute joy watching her put it on the line and I believe she'll do that, get out-kicked for the win, but make the team. If not, she'll leave blood on the track trying.

Darkhorse: Brie Felnagle
If you haven't noticed yet, I like picking Darkhorses with ties to where I live (Raleigh or NC in general) and former Tar Heels. Felnagle is the latter and has really been coming on this year. She especially showed some fight in the prelims, running her second best 1500 ever in 4:09.95 and holding off Georgetown's Emily Infeld for the auto-qualifier. She'll have her hands full with Shannon Rowbury, Anna Pierce and Katie Follett vying for that last spot as well!

Should be a great afternoon of racing! NBC will have the live broadcast from 5-6pm. The final predictions we'll do will be the 800, and they'll be up tonight or tomorrow morning.

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Prediction Time: 2011 USATF Men's and Women's Steeplechase picks

Photo courtesy TrackAndFieldPhoto

The Men's 3000 Steeplechase goes off tomorrow at 3:01 pacific and the usual suspects should be competing for the top three spots. Missing from the field will be fan favorite, Anthony Famiglietti, aka Fam, and Steve Slattery, who has run a few good races this year, but DNF'd the prelims.

The Women's Steeple goes off at 1:45 pacific on Sunday and is also lacking two of it's biggest stars, Anna Pierce and Jenny "B" Simpson. They'll both be in the 1500 final, which I'll post predictions for next. 

Men's 3000 Steeplechase

1. Dan Huling

Huling's been the class of the American field in the steeplechase for the past few years, boasting a nice 8:13.29 PR last summer in Europe. Huling should run away from the field in the last 600 without much trouble. 

2. Ben Bruce

A jack of all trades, Bruce has competed at an All American level from the roads to cross country to the steeple. He looked great in the prelims and should be right on Huling's heels, as he can handle the rounds.

3. Kyle Alcorn

I want to pick Billy Nelson here after his great performance, obtaining the A-standard at Stanford (and gained Nelson sponsorship with New Balance), but Alcorn has looked better lately. Expect he and Nelson to duke it out over the last few laps though, as they always seem to do!

Darkhorse: Josh McAdams

McAdams seems to peak at the right time and although not really a darkhorse, he's been overshadowed lately. Like Jen Rhines, he'll sneak on the podium if anyone falters. Not sure where Donn Cabral is, but he'll be the darkhorse at the trials next year.

Women's 3000 Steeplechase

1. Bridget Franek

Franek looked great the other night in the prelims and should be ready for her first US championship after winning NCAA's last year and struggling through the US championships (after the long college season). She looks to be peaking at the right time and will likely take it out and dare anyone to hang with her.

Photo courtesy TrackAndFieldPhoto

2. Lisa Aguilera

Aguilera has been at it for a while and looks to be fit and ready to don another Team USA singlet. She'll run with Franek (and possibly lead some) as long as possible and will finish on the podium.

3. Emma Coburn

The collegiate champion looked a little tired in the prelims, and with good reason. The college season is arduous and no one would blame Coburn for being a little zapped for energy. I still think she sneaks on the podium, as she just glides over the barriers and should be able to hang with the leaders long enough to separate from the pack.

Darkhorse: Sara Hall

Hall has found a new event this year in the steeple, already turning in an A-standard. The question will be, can she handle coming back from the prelim? She didn't have the energy to muster a kick in the prelims to get an auto qualifier, but may surprise in the final as I know she wants to get to Daegu!

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Prediction Time: 2011 USATF Men's and Women's 5000 picks

After Chris Solinsky held out until the last minute to scratch last night before Galen Rupp ran away from Solinksky's teammate, Matt Tegenkamp, for the win, thoughts immediately turned to who will compete tonight? Who will run, who will be satisfied with one Team USA birth? Rupp looked excellent running away from Teg in the last 800 in a blazing 1:52, while Shalane Flanagan took it from the start and dropped an incredible 30:59.7. Flanagan used a good deal more energy going hard from the gun, while Rupp was content to sit until the end, like he did in college. I'll guess that both Rupp and Flanagan will pass tonight, but if either of them compete, I would pencil them both in top three.

Men's 5000
1. Chris Solinsky
Solinsky will be the freshest tonight after Bernard Lagat ran a 1500 qualifier, Rupp ran the 10,000, as did Solinsky's teammate, Tegenkamp. He'll probably employ the same tactic as Rupp did last night and likely go with 800-1000 to go.

2. Bernard Lagat
Lagat is the king of rounds and famously won the gold in both the 1500 and 5000 at the 2007 World Championships in Osaka. He'll conserve energy as well, and likely go when needed. Will he have enough to overtake Solinsky? Maybe, but keep in mind he does have another race to run in the 1500 final.

3. Galen Rupp or Matt Tegenkamp (whoever runs)
Both Rupp and Teg only worked hard for about 1000 meters last night and both could come back today and compete, but it's unlikely both will. A 10k on the track is tough on your legs, even if you're Kenenisa Bekele!

Darkhorse: Stephen Furst
Raleigh's Stephen Furst has had a great year, winning the Emerald Nuts 4-Miler in a course record to start the year off and then setting a personal best at the Payton Jordan 5000 in 13:29.05. He'll be fresh and ready to go!

Women's 5000
1. Molly Huddle
The American Record holder will be fresh and should be ready for whatever is coming at her.

2. Jenny Simpson
With a lot of competition in the 1500, I wouldn't be surprised to see Jenny B line up in the 5k tonight to try and sit and kick. Rowbury could fare well in this tactic as well (Simpson didn't run)

3. Angela Bizzarri

Angela's great in championship races and shouldn't be slept on!

Darkhorse: Lauren Fleshman
Although coming back from history, Fleshman seems to be rounding into shape. And as we know with her, it's all balls!

We'll get some action on TV tonight as well as continued coverage on Runnerspace.

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Prediction Time: 2011 USATF Men's and Women's 10,000 picks

Photo courtesy TrackAndFieldPhoto.net

Tomorrow marks the start of the 2011 USATF Track and Field Championships and the first finals run will be the women's 10,000 at 7:15 pacific, followed by the men's. Below are the official writing about running picks for the event. Feel free to agree, disagree or make a case for someone else! Runnerspace will be broadcasting the event live.

Men's 10,000
1. Galen Rupp
Although it was a pretty big disappointment not getting to see Rupp run in front of his alma mater at Distance Night in Eugene (during the Prefontaine Classic), by all accounts, Rupp is ready to roll and I believe roll he will. With Chris Solinsky battling back from hamstring injury, I think Rupp will pounce.

2. Chris Solinsky
Solinsky's American Record in the 10,000 last year at Stanford was even more exciting than Dathan Ritzenhein's American Record in the 5,000 the year before. It was one of the best executed races I have ever seen and set him up for an excellent season where he broke 13 in the 5,000 three times and competed with the best in the world doing it. That in mind, he didn't look quite right at Distance Night in Eugene, pulling up after 3000 meters or so with a troublesome hamstring. I've got Solinsky at second here... if he runs. Still not sure if he's playing a game of chicken with Rupp, but at this point, Rupp's coach, Alberto Salazar has stated that Rupp will run the 10,000 and may pull out of the 5,000 if he qualifies here. Keep an eye on the status of entries here. (Solinsky didn't run)

3. Matt Tegenkamp
Teg's only run the 10k once, but turned in an excellent time of 27:28. Although his teammate Tim Nelson has more experience in the 10k and Bobby Curtis has run faster this year in 27:24, I believe Teg will run a smart race and push the last 800 for a spot on the Daegu team. Still, Teg could end up scratching and saving up for the 5000. If that happens, I'll give the nod to Curtis for the third spot.

Darkhorse: Bobby Mack
How can I not pick Raleigh's Bobby Mack here? Mack has been running excellent of late, running a huge PR at Payton Jordan of 28:11, then going on to run 4 flat in the mile and then taking home the road 8k championship over the always consistent Aaron Braun.

Women's 10,000
1. Shalane Flanagan
Shalane's the runaway favorite here after her incredible year so far. A 5 second miss at the American Record at Distance Night in Eugene should propel her to a big win. Expect her to run with the pack and go when she needs to as she'll probably double back in the 5000.

Photo courtesy TrackAndFieldPhoto.net

2. Kara Goucher
Goucher is looking better and better lately after giving birth to her first child earlier this year. This will be a big test, as she has yet to run the event on the track this year in which she took the bronze at the 2007 World Championships in Osaka. Don't expect a blazing time, but expect her to finish second.

3. Desi Davila
Although Jen Rhines has run 20+ seconds faster here than Davila, it's hard not to pick her after seeing her fight back and fight back and fight back to finish a strong second at the 2011 Boston Marathon.

Darkhorse: Jen Rhines
While not really a darkhorse, the always consistent Jen Rhines will podium if any of the above three slip up; you can count on that! With Amy Yoder-Begley coming back from injury, there aren't really any others that will challenge, with Lisa Koll out due to injury as well. Don't be surprised if Rhines makes her umpteenth USA team!

Stay tuned for more picks as we'll do the 5000 next!

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Prediction Time: 2011 USATF Track Championships (coming soon)

I'll be posting predictions for the 800, 1500, Steeple, 5000 and 10,000 in the next day or so for USA's, just waiting to see who's going to declare for what. I'm looking at you, Galen, Solinsky, Tegenkamp, Wheating... If you have any inside information, please let me know!

In the meantime, feel free to check out the schedule here and the the status of entries here.

Should be a great weekend of racing to get our Daegu team together!

Want to see how I fared? Check out the Nationals Recap

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